Hello and Welcome to Transitory

The Purpose

Transitory newsletter aims to provide information, insights and research analysis in and around financial markets, disruptive innovation and global trends, offering my readers a different perspective, free from the oversized influence of big institutional bias.

My writing gravitates around concepts that I developed for my PhD dissertation. I conducted research over nine years examining innovation in a variety of industries, disciplines and historical settings. The outcome of that research is a theory of social adoption of innovation which helped me understand and predict social media’s impact on society, see financial markets and new industries in historical context, and have more clarity on the role of narratives, transmission of information and knowledge creation.

Broadly speaking, I have a background in technology and applied finance, but the originality of my approach to equities and financial markets in general is based on my research on social adoption of innovation and a technical analysis model that I developed to support medium and long term investment strategies.

The content of this newsletter is not financial advice and it is not motivated by the desire to influence, but by my desire to think better, share exchange ideas as part of the larger conversation we all have about what is happening in the world.

I am not a financial advisor and I do not make any representations that constitute advice. These are just my own views, and in the same way I enjoy reading other writers’ inspiring work, I want others enjoy my writing and find it useful.

I hope you will find the newsletter gives you valuable insights and spark interesting ideas. Thank you for reading!

Why “Transitory”?

Big institutions have a natural bias shaped by their history, their work and life cultural DNA and their charter. Even with the best effort to stay objective, this bias is part of their overwhelming influence over the public’s understanding of the past and current events, and it’s future expectations: central bankers, rating agencies, large investment management funds, central administrative institutions with regulatory functions, big media outlets, all of who dominate the news flow and opinions.

“Transitory Inflation” is one of the best memes that exemplifies institutional bias and its consequences. The meme of 2022 most known in the financial markets, demonstrates the human tendency to manufacture an alternate reality to save face even in the face of clear evidence of the contrary. One of the fascinating aspects of this illusion is that it happened to reputable institutions run by extremely competent people. If they are so good, why didn’t they see it grow into a crisis? Something happened there.

Despite the authority of the Fed and the decision to stick to the “transitory inflation” mantra, many have challenged this view and asked questions. We need these opinions and we need to know about them. We also need to ask questions ourselves, gather information and observe a diversity of view. In the end we take a position justified by our own judgement after we put all these pieces together. This is what I am attempting to do with the “Transitory” newsletter: use my own sources and my judgement to make a call that I share with you, not to influence you or give you advice, but to offer you points of reference that you can use for your own judgment to make your own call.

I always adapt with time and that will be reflected in how the newsletter is organised. One aspect that will remain constant throughout these “adjustments” is the desire to write about interesting things, intellectually stimulating and helpful to my readers.

If you would like to join me in this journey, please sign up, thank you!